Have you heard about the term climate
change madness?
It was popularized by the head of the Philippines delegation, Yeb
Sano, who made international headlines
with his emotional speech at the opening session of the United Nations Climate
Change Conference in November
2013[1].
At the time of his speech, Super Typhoon Haiyan had just hit the Philippines
and caused catastrophic damage to the country. His speech brought tears to the eyes of many
of the delegates and was met with a standing ovation.
However,
emotions without actions mean little. At the end of 2016, 195 countries, including the US* and China, which are the two biggest carbon emitters, came together and signed
the Paris Agreement. This was the first time in history that countries around
the world had collectively agreed to undertake efforts to cut carbon emission
to keep the global temperature increase below 2 degree Celsius above
pre-industrial levels [2].
While carbon emission reduction can slow the pace
of global temperature increase, the earth will almost certainly become warmer[3].
Carbon emission reduction can only reduce the extent of temperature increase.
If carbon emissions were to reduce significantly,
the rise in the global average surface temperature could be limited to below 2
degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. This is
what the Paris Agreement is trying to achieve.
In short, whatever we do now, global warming is
bound to happen and it is going to negatively impact our lives, depending on
the extent of the temperature increase.
Generally, there are two aspects to tackling
climate change – adaptation and mitigation. Adaptation consists of taking steps
to reduce the impact of climate change while mitigation is related to taking
steps to reduce carbon emission, and hence the extent of global warming.
I shall discuss these two aspects in the
Malaysian context.
Adaptation
Since climate change is inevitable, Malaysia needs to anticipate the negative effects of
it and take the appropriate action to prevent or minimise the damage. The figure
below gives examples of the impact of climate change that is listed by the
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) from different aspects –
water, ecosystems, food, coast and health, according to different temperature
thresholds [4].
The size of the impact is dependent on the extent of adaptation, the rate of
temperature change and socio-economic factors.
Impact of Global Warming at
Different Temperature Thresholds
Source: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, IPCC, 2007, p.51
To ensure that Malaysia is fully prepared to
face the “climate change madness”, we urgently need to have a comprehensive
national climate change adaptation and extreme weather disaster risk management
programme.
For example, there will be changing rain patterns, rising mean sea levels (coastal
floods) and more frequent extreme weather events. Because of this, our infrastructure and building codes must be adapted to meet
unpredictable weather conditions. We also need to optimise our scarce water
sources, examine risks associated with the country’s ecosystem, and evaluate
and manage our health and food systems.
Aside from the inability of our conventional
infrastructure planning methods to withstand the changing weather patterns, my
other worry about climate change is its negative impact on food production. The
United Nations has projected that up to 25
percent of global food production could be lost by 2050 due to the
combined impact of climate change, land degradation and water scarcity. In the meantime, the global population is
projected to increase from the current 7 billion to about 9.5 billion [5]. This figure shows that temperature
increase will have an impact on crop production in countries all over the world [6].
Relative Change of Food Yield by 2050 for a 3 degree Celsius
Warmer World
Source: World Resource Institute,
2014.
The map indicates that Malaysia will
also face a decrease in food productivity. Therefore, we need to start working
on biotechnology that will help our crop production to be more resilient to
diseases, temperature change and water stress.
At our current income and
technological level, while we may be able to avoid food crisis and starvation,
there will likely be an increase in food prices. In addition, crop productivity
in some of our poorer neighbors’, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, India and Pakistan
among others, will also be severely affected by global warming. There is a
possibility that these countries will be faced with a food crisis.
What does that mean for us in
Malaysia? Even without social unrest or war, there will be large-scale
migration by the people from these countries to less affected and richer
countries, including Malaysia.
Hence, when
we are considering climate impact on food production, we need to do more than
just improving agricultural technology and develop climate-resistant crops. We
also need a proper legal framework, possibly with other countries, to manage
migration and refugees, which could become a more pressing issue in the days to
come.
Mitigation
Now, let’s shift our attention to mitigation
aspect of climate change. To reduce the extent of global warming, we need to
reduce carbon emission.
According to Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), which is published annually by
Germanwatch [7],
Malaysia is one of
the poorest performing countries when it comes to reducing its carbon footprint.
Since the publication of the CCPI in
2005, Malaysia has consistently ranked in the bottom 30 per cent of the list.
In the latest CCPI (2017), we are ranked 44th out of a total of 61
countries.
The government’s Green Technology Financing Scheme (introduced in 2009) and Sustainable Energy Development Authority (SEDA, which was introduced in
2011), which are designed to assist in carbon emission reduction, have apparently
failed to make a contribution to Malaysia’s climate change performance.
As of 2015, renewable energy is still
only a small part of Malaysia’s total energy supply, with only about four
percent from hydropower and 0.74 percent from other non-hydropower renewable
sources.
All in all, Malaysia is not doing
enough to reduce its carbon emission level.
Having said that, we should recognise
that Malaysia is a small country and as such, cannot contribute much towards
combating global warming no matter how much we cut our carbon emission
level.
As of 2014, China, the US and countries
in the European Union are the biggest emitters, releasing 30 percent, 15
percent and nine percent of global carbon emissions respectively [8].
The extent of climate change depends on
how the big emitters and countries around the world respond to the call to
overcome climate change. As for Malaysia, even if we manage to cut our carbon
emission significantly, we would not be making much of a dent in global carbon
emission.
If that’s the case, why should Malaysia
do anything to mitigate climate change?
In Chinese, the word for crisis is 危机, with 危 as the word
for danger while 机 represents opportunity. This means that
there is opportunity in every danger/difficulty. While the world is facing a
climate change crisis, Malaysia should identify and develop industries that
will help to mitigate it, which could also be a job-creating opportunity.
We should also
have strategic plans to develop green technology in Malaysia because the green
market will only become bigger as the world shifts towards less
carbon-intensive products and energy sources to meet Paris Agreement
commitments. While the US has pulled out of
the Paris Agreement, many US corporations, cities and states are still
committed to honouring the agreement, which means that the market for green
technology is almost certain to grow.
As discussed in the previous article, solar and
wind power can now be as cost competitive as fossil fuels. Hence, developing
green businesses is not only the right thing to do morally to safeguard the
world – it also makes great business sense.
For example, Denmark’s wind farms can
now produce more energy than the domestic electricity demand, so the nation now
exports electricity powered by the wind to Norway, Germany and Sweden [9]. China, which used to copy the world’s solar
panel technology, is now “utterly and totally” dominating the solar panel
industry, says Fortune magazine [10].
Malaysia should also do the same. We
should make concerted efforts to diversify from the oil and gas industry and
move towards green “pastures” to prepare the country for a global future with
less carbon.
Climate Change and the Future of Malaysia
Overall, we need to form a National
Council of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation, which consists of
scientists from various fields, government officials and other relevant
experts, to systematically look into the impact of climate change on the
country and take necessary adaption and mitigation measures before it is too
late.
Indeed, the future is full of unknowns.
Will the Paris Agreement be able to keep the global temperature under control?
Or will we live in a world where we need to bear with the many socio-economic
impacts of climate change? No one knows. But one thing is certain, we need to
be prepared for climate change to survive and thrive in the future.
Note:
*The US under President Donald Trump has pulled out from the Paris Agreement but many US businesses, cities and states continue be committed to honouring the agreement.
This article is extracted from a chapter of my book - "Reimagining Malaysia."
Reference:
[1] Matt
McGrath. Typhoon prompts 'fast' by Philippines climate
delegate. 11 Nov 2013 [31 Aug 2017]. Available from http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-24899647
[2] European
Commission. Paris Agreement. [cited 31 Aug 2017]. Available from https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/paris_en
[3] Intergovernmental
Panel of Climate Change. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of
Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and
L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. 2014 [cited 31 Aug 2017].
Available from https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf
[4] Intergovernmental
Panel of Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. 2007 [cited 31
Aug 2017]. Available from https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf
[5] Daniel Wallis.
UN says food production may fall 25 percent by 2050. Reuters. 18 Feb 2009
[cited 31 Aug 2017]. Available from http://www.reuters.com/article/us-food-idUSTRE51G46W20090217
[6] Tien Shia,
Francis Gassert, Kelly Witkowski. Latin
American Experts Need Good Data to Plan for Water Stress and a Changing
Climate. World Resource Institute. 9 Oct 2017 [ cited 31 Aug 2017]. Available
from http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/10/latin-american-experts-need-good-data-plan-water-stress-and-changing-climate
[7] German Watch.
Climate change performance index. [cited 31 Aug 2017]. Available from https://germanwatch.org/en/ccpi
[8] US
Environmental Protection Agency. Global greenhouse gas emissions data. [cited
31 Aug 2017]. Available from https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data
[9] Arthur Neslen.
Wind power generates 140% of Denmark’s electricity demand. The Guardian. 10
July 2015 [cited 31 Aug 2017]. Available from https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/10/denmark-wind-windfarm-power-exceed-electricity-demand
[10] Katie
Fehrenbacher. China is utterly and totally dominating solar panels. Fortune. 18
Jun 2015 [cited 31 Aug 2017]. Available from http://fortune.com/2015/06/18/china-is-utterly-and-totally-dominating-solar-panels/
